Special Issue: ECFA Study in the Political Mist
Special Issue Article
1. On the Causes of Disputes and Uncertainties in ECFA: from the Perspective of Normalization of Cross-strait Trade Relations
Tsai-Lung (Honigmann) Hong Adjunct Assistant Professor, Center for Contemporary China, National Tsing Hua University
2. Advantages and Limitations of President Ma’s Cross-Strait Negotiation: CECA/ECFA as an Example
Szu-Chien Hsu Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica
3. Cross-strait Trade and Class Politics in Taiwan
Thung-Hong Lin Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica
Alfred Ko-We Hu Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, Fu Jen Catholic University
4. The Strategic Interest of the ECFA: a Politico-Economic Analysis on Regional Economic Division of Labor
Hung-Jeng Tsai Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, National Sun Yat-sen University
Research Article
1. Roundtrip and Gender Norms: Taiwanese Female Emigrant Workers in Okinawa Islands from 1960 to 1970
Shwu-Wen Chiou Associate Professor, The M.A. Program of Asia-Pacific Studies in the Department of International and China Studies, Nanhua University
Special Issue Article
On the Causes of Disputes and Uncertainties in ECFA: from the Perspective of Normalization of Cross-strait Trade Relations
Tsai-Lung (Honigmann) Hong
Adjunct Assistant Professor, Center for Contemporary China, National Tsing Hua University
Because cross-straits economic issues have been highly publicized, Taiwan, which has not yet fully fulfilled its WTO commitments, is now under pressure to shorten its timetable for liberalizing its markets following the signing of the ECFA. The number of Chinese products prohibited from import into Taiwan accounts for 20% of Taiwan’s total import items. This indicates that cross-straits economic and trade relations are yet to be normalized. However, the ECFA is by definition more preferential than WTO MFN treatment.
Taking the trade in goods as an example of further elaboration, when a prohibited item, under “WTO-minus” provisions, become a legal import, its tariff level is reduced from the set tariff ceiling to MFN tariff rates. If it is included in the ECFA, a “WTO-plus” pact, the tariff rate is further cut to zero. That is to say, inclusion in the ECFA of items on the list of prohibited imports to Taiwan will deal a powerful blow to the Taiwanese economy, industry, and labor market.
ECFA is designed as a “Framework Agreement” setting out the objectives and principles of the prospective negotiations plus “Early Harvest Program” with a list of limited products to apply for preferential treatment. So goes the argument that Taiwan might find it difficult to comply fully with the WTO rules imposed on developed members engaging in regional trade agreements, particularly the criteria of “substantially all the trade” (SAT) in products originating in the partner’s territory since there is no “plan and schedule” in the legal text of ECFA. Besides, it is therefore difficult to make a reliable assessment of economic impacts from ECFA because its contents remain open.
Keywords: economic integration, normalization, ECFA
Advantages and Limitations of President Ma’s Cross-Strait Negotiation: CECA/ECFA as an Example
Szu-Chien Hsu
Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica
In the “Strategy of Conflict”, Schelling conjectured that if an executive intentionally ties his or her hands with domestic constraints, he or she may gain greater leverage in international bargaining. A similar point has also been raised by Robert Putnam with his “two-level game model”. This model argues that such a diplomatic bargain can be reached when domestic win-set intersects with the international one. Putnam also argues that when a domestic win-set is small, it can be a bargaining advantage for the negotiator.
This paper intends to review President Ma Ying-Jeou’s bargaining process with Beijing on the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Arrangement (CECA) or Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with the analytic framework of two-level game and the Schelling Conjecture. This paper finds some implicit assumptions that are not well examined by the two-level game model. These findings may help us understand the success and limitations of President Ma’s negotiation strategy with Beijing on CECA/ECFA, and also help us review the theoretical model of the two-level game.
Keywords: ECFA, Cross-Strait Relations, Ma Ying-Jeo
Cross-strait Trade and Class Politics in Taiwan
Thung-Hong Lin
Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica
Alfred Ko-We Hu
Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, Fu Jen Catholic University
Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), a cross-strait trade agreement has irritated political debates and social discontents in Taiwan. In this article we investigate the class politics of trade and its impact on the political behavior of Taiwanese voters. According to a national survey of 2010, which asked 1,242 Taiwanese adults about their opinions of the trade agreement, we found that social class shaped people’s expectation and preference of trade, which influenced their voting behavior. The members of working class and self-employed opposed the agreement because they expected that the expending cross-strait trade will deteriorate income inequality. In contrast, the capitalists and managers supported the agreement because they expected that the expending trade with China will improve economic performance of Taiwan. The different expectations of ECFA impacts connected with the voting behavior - the ECFA supporters, mostly capitalists and managers, preferred to sustain the pan-blue camp; while the ECFA opposition, mostly the working class and self-employed, preferred to support the pan-green camp. The results displayed that the class voting and trade coalition matter in the recent elections in Taiwan.
Keywords: social stratification, class politics, election, voting behavior, trade, Taiwan, cross-strait relationship
Politico-Economic Analysis on Regional Economic Division of Labor
Hung-Jeng Tsai
Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, National Sun Yat-sen University
This article analyzes Taiwan’s strategic position by signing ECFA in terms of international political economy. We first argue that the core of the East Asian open regionalism after WWII was the US-Japan security treaty and flying geese production networks. Both of them worked together to support the US hegemony in East Asia. However, flying geese system was transformed and extended to include China after the 1980s due to the US financial regulation, new division of labor due to technological innovation, and Chinese economic reform. As globalization in this region was set back by the East Asian financial crisis in 1997 and failure of Doha round of the WTO negotiation, ASEAN plus one emerged as a new model for economic regionalization, in which China’s influence was weighted and created Taiwan’s ECFA issue. Nevertheless, The US hegemony, which stands for open East Asian regionalism, still holds a firm regional leadership and therefore counter-balances a closed East Asian economic regionalization. We argue that Taiwan should keep a subtle balance in this regional transformation and measure its own strategic position by four criteria, that is, regional military change, international financial standard, global final market, and technological leadership.
Keywords: ECFA, East Asian open regionalism, regional transformation, US hegemony
Research Article
Roundtrip and Gender Norms: Taiwanese Female Emigrant Workers in Okinawa Islands from 1960 to 1970
Shwu-Wen Chiou
Associate Professor, The M.A. Program of Asia-Pacific Studies in the Department of International and China Studies, Nanhua University
Viewing from the perspectives of “roundtrip and gender norms”, this paper analyzes Taiwanese female emigrant workers’ transnational life experiences in Okinawa islands from 1960 to1970 from the standpoint of sending country instead of the receiving one. The data were obtained through interviewing eight woman workers in Dalin township, Chiayi County.
The main findings are: (1) For wives to work as emigrant workers was considered a strategy of sustenance and improvement for their husbands’ families. The husbands’ families exert influence on the wives’ motive of working abroad and their migration style. (2) Not only had the female emigrant workers to endure all kinds of hardship, but also financially contribute to their husbands’ families when they return. They had no power to dispose any of their income, and their situation in the husbands’ families remained unchanged. Moreover, these women never reflected on their inferior positions under the village’s patriarchal culture.
To conclude, the “roundtrip” experience bring no change to the status quo of these female workers because (1) they are deeply influenced by the traditional gender role; (2) the hierarchical system in the village’s traditional patriarchal family is almost impossible to accept any change.
Keywords: gender norms, Taiwanese female emigrant workers, transnational labor migration, strategies for family sustenance and improvementand improvement
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